Agricultural Productivity II - Extreme Weater

Welcome back! And the results are in:

Thank you to everyone who's voted. I am more than happy to continue writing about agricultural productivity. Also, many thanks to my new American readers - welcome to the crew!

So let's get on with it...

Extreme weather events

FAO found that from 2003-2013, extreme weather induced damages amount to USD 1.5 trillion. The worst part of it is that 25% of it was from the food industry (crop, livestock, fisheries, forestry). In particular, drought caused at least 80% of damage and impact on agriculture. Its impact on the agricultural sector, particularly livestock and crop production, means that famine occurrence is highly probable.

According to the IPCC 2007 report, we will see increased precipitation in high latitudes during winter as well as a decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics.Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit unfavorably from drought with agricultural production losses at 90%. This has bigger implications not only on food security within the region, but also on their economic stability, as agricultural production accounts to 12.7% of their GDP. Floods in Pakistan hit crop production of cotton, rice, flour, and sugar. From a total USD 10 billion in damages, at least half of it was from the devastated agricultural production.

Floods and droughts will be increasingly common as anthropogenic climate change starts to impact the Earth, which increases the challenge for countries with already dry climates. Additionally, droughts coupled with rising temperatures will reduce moisture which will further complicate food production.

With more temperate climates alongside higher humidity, new forms of pests, fungi, and weeds will thrive. The range and distribution of these are projected to increase, which would cause further problems for those whose crops that have not been exposed before. Furthermore, with increased pest pressures and increasingly inefficient pesticides may become a potential threat to human health. An example of this would be Aspergillus lavus moulds, which grow on stored ground-nuts in the tropics. The moulds release potent toxins which cause cancer (McMichael, 1993: 164). These setbacks will become more frequent as our climate changes, which has huge implications on our crop production.

So what does this mean on a global scale? The implications of more frequent and severe weather events in the future may hinder food production as well as delivery. This may mean that food price inflation will be more prominent within the global economy. With increases in food prices, this will block many families from being able to not only purchase food, but also to get enough nutrients within this food. Additionally, the implications of hotter climates suggest faster spoilage, which implies either a more wasteful Earth, or an Earth with more genetically modified produce.

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is one of the most powerful phenomenon that influences agricultural productivity. Although they are quasi-regular (every two to nine years), they have varying intensities. ENSO has been increasingly frequent and stronger since the 1980s, and can be attributed to global warming(Rosenzweig et al. 2001).

(Source)

This video does a good summary of ENSO and its impacts on agricultural productivity and food security:

Although ENSO's impacts are predominantly detrimental to agricultural productivity, it does bring positives to certain areas. However, most of the detrimental impacts are contained to the Southern Hemisphere; which is already experiencing unstable agricultural productivity.

Before I leave, take a look at the interactive map which uses scenarios to project how food insecurity will change from climate change. Currently, it looks like this (below); which is interesting if you think about how certain areas have really low food insecurity (such as the Russian federation). Although some regions such as the EU and North America, are excluded from this, other countries' impacts to climate change based on different scenarios are quite disappointing. These countries, unless global action is taken to a high degree, will have even more challenging scenarios to overcome to attain food security.

To conclude this post, food security and climate change are highly linked. To refresh our memory from my first post on food security, we also know that food security leads to a myriad of health problems. There is a sense of urgency to address the uncertain food security of the future, especially given the rate of population increase. What is quite frustrating; however, is how much uncertainty there is on food production. For example, we do not know if areas with higher yields from climate change will be able to compensate for those with sudden decreased yield regions. Because of the uncertainty that surrounds food security, it makes it more difficult for effective management and mitigation. But that’s another pessimistic view.

Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity

In my last post, we explored the link between health and food security. What we’ve found so far is that food security is essential for maintaining a healthy population. In particular, food accessibility is so integral.

However, the food production network is not limited to solely growing the food, but also includes human capital, such as roads and storage. And as a whole, the food system is vulnerable as soon as even one component of food security is threatened.  The earth is projected to become warmer and wetter; however, this change will probably not be gradual changes, but instead as more frequent, longer, and intense hotspells and rain which will affect the different components of the food system. In this post, I will be exploring how climate affects agricultural productivity and in particular, will be mainly looking at temperature, CO2, and precipitation.

Temperature and agricultural productivity

With higher seasonal temperatures can influence agricultural productivity and food security. Due to warming, it is predicted that crops such as cereals and soya beans will benefit as their range and productivity will increase northwards. The warming Earth could mean a 30% increase in yields by 2050 for some crops. With added technological advancement, we could see a possible 37 to 101% increase in wheat yield by 2050 in Europe.

However, for some regions such as the tropics with temperatures already reaching the physiological maxima, evaporation rates will increase due to high heat stress. Extreme temperatures and precipitation which may hinder crop growth. A 2 degree increase may mean increase in yields for mid-latitudes whereas in the lower latitudes may mean a 10% decrease, as shown in Figure 1 .

Figure 1 Sensitivity of different crops (maize, wheat, and rice from mid- to high-latitudes vs low latitudes) to temperature change (Source)

Climate and Food - how serious is the link?

Climate refers to a region’s average weather. The average climate of the world’s regions is the earth’s climate. Therefore, climate change is the change in the Earth’s overall climate. Changes in climate have been noted throughout history, but perhaps the most prominent effect of climate change is temperature rise across the world.

The earth’s climate affects us all, thus is very important. By changes in the climate, it can threaten food security and eventually our health. In today’s post, I’ll be exploring how climate affects our health. In particular, this post will talk about the different medical outcomes of climate-affected food security.

Food security is defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization as a ‘situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’.

Food security has different aspects within it: availability, stability, access, and utilization. With regards to climate change and food security implications, the FAO looks at two kinds: the impact on availability, and on access.  

Throughout history, we have seen climate’s imprints on humanity. For example, the Viking settlement in Greenland is thought to have fallen from climate change, particularly by the falling temperatures in Europe. Adjustment to this changing climate is difficult – especially considering the Viking’s conservative lifestyle of being livestock dependent. With colder temperatures, agriculture became progressively more difficult resulting in a threatened food security. The colder climate resulted in more obstructive sea ice, thus food importation was also not an easy option. Although the Viking settlement’s cause of demise is one that is heavily debated, climate is a highly suggestable cause.

Food security is important for a population to thrive. Without adequate food security, it may lead to inflation in food prices and consequently lead to a starving population. Throughout history, climatic changes have also been the catalyst for social unrest: for example, the Great Medieval Famine (1315-1317). The Great Medieval Famine saw drastic changes in climate with colder and wetter summers, and earlier autumnal storms. Because of this change, agricultural growth was difficult which led to lower harvest. Due to food price inflation, many of those who could not afford the new prices ended up with malnutrition, and eventually death. Social unrest such as cannibalism occurred, alongside animal diseases that killed over half the sheep and oxen, which further decreased possible food sources. 

So let's go on to the health aspect. (I won't delve too much into the medical aspects, and rather give an overview of this as I'm trying to keep this as geographical as possible.) 

How does food insecurity impact human health? Besides the obvious lower muscle and tissue mass, it also weakens the immune system. With a weakened immune system, it increases the likelihood of a mother, infant, or child to die early. Furthermore, food insecurity increases the probability of developing iron deficiency anemia which impacts the pulmonary function which increases the likelihood of respiratory failure. Additionally, Black (2012) found that iron deficiency anemia has been found to hinder socioemotional, motor, neurophysical, and cognitive development. Food insecurity can lead to pregnant women giving birth to children with a lower birth weight, which also increases the likelihood of learning problems due to developmental delays. 

Food insecurity and its associated hunger has consequences on mental health too. For example, McIntyre et al. (2012) used Canadian National Survey of Children and Young data from 1994 to 2009 and proposed a link between child hunger, depression, and suicidal ideation later in life. McIntyre et al. has suggested that this link may be due to nutritional deprivation, which highlights child nutrition to be a key priority. Similarly, symptoms such as anxiety and hostility are common in food insecure children. 

The link between food security on health is hard to deny, and has been one that has threatened civilizations before. To sum this post up, it's clear that climate has huge impacts on health as it alters food security. We've not talked about how climate influences food security, but we will be exploring this in my next post. 

Just a hello

Hello! I am Jenny, a third year Geographer. Welcome to my blog!

Ever since being a part of the Medsin society at UCL, I’ve had a huge interest in looking at global health. I've subsequently been involved in climate marches, and whenever we attended them as a health bloc, I realized that there were no geographers at all apart from me. Whenever I tried to peak Geographers' interests in global health, I've been told that it's 'not too relevant to Geography'.

In GEOG3057, part of our assessment is looking at global environmental change. I have decided to write about the topic of environmental change and human health (as well as the numerous aspects of health), in hopes to make it clearer how health and climate interlink. While exploring the links between the two, I hope to also learn about what is being done to mitigate climatic impacts on society, and the challenges that arise in its mitigation.

The relationship between the environment and human health is one that is increasingly being established. Furthermore, from increasing climate research and its associated health effects, a relationship between climate and health has become less esoteric, and has become a source of concern. It has been stated that climate change is the ‘biggest global health threat’ in the 21^st century (Source). 

But before we dive into this, what do I know so far about climate and health? I know that climatic changes will make our livelihoods more difficult to sustain because of  changing temperature zones and that there will be changing disease vectors such as Malaria, but I admit I am not the most knowledgeable in this subject. I feel slightly pessimistic about how we will be mitigating the effects of climate change on our health, namely because I feel that there is so much uncertainty about the changes to come. When we are so unsure about the timeframe of when climate change will really affect us, how can we mitigate its impacts? How can we ensure that everyone will be safe from the health consequences, especially when there is so much inequality within the world already? Who's responsible in ensuring our health in the future? I have no guarantee that I will have the answers by the end of this module, but I do hope I feel more optimistic.