Welcome back! And the results are in:
Extreme weather events
FAO found that from 2003-2013, extreme weather induced damages amount to USD 1.5 trillion. The worst part of it is that 25% of it was from the food industry (crop, livestock, fisheries, forestry). In particular, drought caused at least 80% of damage and impact on agriculture. Its impact on the agricultural sector, particularly livestock and crop production, means that famine occurrence is highly probable.
According to the IPCC 2007 report, we will see increased precipitation in high latitudes during winter as well as a decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics.Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit unfavorably from drought with agricultural production losses at 90%. This has bigger implications not only on food security within the region, but also on their economic stability, as agricultural production accounts to 12.7% of their GDP. Floods in Pakistan hit crop production of cotton, rice, flour, and sugar. From a total USD 10 billion in damages, at least half of it was from the devastated agricultural production.
Floods and droughts will be increasingly common as anthropogenic climate change starts to impact the Earth, which increases the challenge for countries with already dry climates. Additionally, droughts coupled with rising temperatures will reduce moisture which will further complicate food production.
Thank you to everyone who's voted. I am more than happy to continue writing about agricultural productivity. Also, many thanks to my new American readers - welcome to the crew!
So let's get on with it...
Extreme weather events
FAO found that from 2003-2013, extreme weather induced damages amount to USD 1.5 trillion. The worst part of it is that 25% of it was from the food industry (crop, livestock, fisheries, forestry). In particular, drought caused at least 80% of damage and impact on agriculture. Its impact on the agricultural sector, particularly livestock and crop production, means that famine occurrence is highly probable.
According to the IPCC 2007 report, we will see increased precipitation in high latitudes during winter as well as a decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics.Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit unfavorably from drought with agricultural production losses at 90%. This has bigger implications not only on food security within the region, but also on their economic stability, as agricultural production accounts to 12.7% of their GDP. Floods in Pakistan hit crop production of cotton, rice, flour, and sugar. From a total USD 10 billion in damages, at least half of it was from the devastated agricultural production.
Floods and droughts will be increasingly common as anthropogenic climate change starts to impact the Earth, which increases the challenge for countries with already dry climates. Additionally, droughts coupled with rising temperatures will reduce moisture which will further complicate food production.
With more temperate climates alongside higher humidity, new forms of pests, fungi, and weeds will thrive. The range and distribution of these are projected to increase, which would cause further problems for those whose crops that have not been exposed before. Furthermore, with increased pest pressures and increasingly inefficient pesticides may become a potential threat to human health. An example of this would be Aspergillus lavus moulds, which grow on stored ground-nuts in the tropics. The moulds release potent toxins which cause cancer (McMichael, 1993: 164). These setbacks will become more frequent as our climate changes, which has huge implications on our crop production.
So what does this mean on a global scale? The implications of more frequent and severe weather events in the future may hinder food production as well as delivery. This may mean that food price inflation will be more prominent within the global economy. With increases in food prices, this will block many families from being able to not only purchase food, but also to get enough nutrients within this food. Additionally, the implications of hotter climates suggest faster spoilage, which implies either a more wasteful Earth, or an Earth with more genetically modified produce.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is one of the most powerful phenomenon that influences agricultural productivity. Although they are quasi-regular (every two to nine years), they have varying intensities. ENSO has been increasingly frequent and stronger since the 1980s, and can be attributed to global warming(Rosenzweig et al. 2001).
This video does a good summary of ENSO and its impacts on agricultural productivity and food security:
Although ENSO's impacts are predominantly detrimental to agricultural productivity, it does bring positives to certain areas. However, most of the detrimental impacts are contained to the Southern Hemisphere; which is already experiencing unstable agricultural productivity.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is one of the most powerful phenomenon that influences agricultural productivity. Although they are quasi-regular (every two to nine years), they have varying intensities. ENSO has been increasingly frequent and stronger since the 1980s, and can be attributed to global warming(Rosenzweig et al. 2001).
This video does a good summary of ENSO and its impacts on agricultural productivity and food security:
Although ENSO's impacts are predominantly detrimental to agricultural productivity, it does bring positives to certain areas. However, most of the detrimental impacts are contained to the Southern Hemisphere; which is already experiencing unstable agricultural productivity.
Before I leave, take a look at the interactive map which uses scenarios to project how food insecurity will change from climate change. Currently, it looks like this (below); which is interesting if you think about how certain areas have really low food insecurity (such as the Russian federation). Although some regions such as the EU and North America, are excluded from this, other countries' impacts to climate change based on different scenarios are quite disappointing. These countries, unless global action is taken to a high degree, will have even more challenging scenarios to overcome to attain food security.
To conclude this post, food security and climate change are highly linked. To refresh our memory from my first post on food security, we also know that food security leads to a myriad of health problems. There is a sense of urgency to address the uncertain food security of the future, especially given the rate of population increase. What is quite frustrating; however, is how much uncertainty there is on food production. For example, we do not know if areas with higher yields from climate change will be able to compensate for those with sudden decreased yield regions. Because of the uncertainty that surrounds food security, it makes it more difficult for effective management and mitigation. But that’s another pessimistic view.
 |
No comments:
Post a Comment